India enters FY27 with a 𝗺𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽!

Headline indicators remain resilient~ The real GDP is projected to grow around 𝟳.𝟰% 𝗶𝗻 𝗙𝗬𝟮𝟲 and is expected to remain robust in FY27, supported by strong domestic demand and consumption, which makes up more than 𝟲𝟭% 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗗𝗣 (the highest since FY12) according to the Economic Survey.

Public capital expenditure continues to anchor expansion, with infrastructure outlay rising to a record ₹𝟭𝟮.𝟮 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 for 2026–27.

Balance sheets across banks and corporates remain materially stronger than a few years ago, and inflation has recently moderated within target ranges.

Yet beneath these aggregates, fault lines must not be ignored.

The Indian rupee touched historic lows near ₹𝟵𝟮 𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝗦 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 in early 2026, reflecting persistent capital flow imbalances. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying price pressures remain uneven, and heightened global volatility in capital flows continues to cloud the outlook for the external sector.

Against this backdrop, capital markets approached 𝗨𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 with measured expectations~ not for stimulus, but for  𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘁𝗮𝘅 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. What followed was a budget that doubled down on 𝗳𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆, while selectively diverging from market expectations in financial services and capital markets.

As Pitchfork begins its Budget 2026 series across sectors, we start with 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀~

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